I wouldn't bet that IEP sells CRV Energy. IEP get's past the 40 Act by owning CRV in the same way that Berkshire Hathaway gets around the 40 Act by owning GIECO.... BRK isn't selling GEICO ever for that reason and neither would IEP. If IEP were to sell CRV they would need another large operating asset to take its place otherwise be subject to the 40 Act as a closed-end fund trading securities.
Thanks for the comment. I don’t have an immediate reaction, will dig into this topic to make sure I understand it. But yes, ultimately I don’t think a buyout is necessary at all to make a god return from here
Hi, subscriber here. Cn you please send me your xls for your analysis? pker28@live.com
Also, curious to your updated opinion on this stock now that it has rallied significantly. Distributions were lower than expected however, they did retire debt.
I wonder if you have an idea how many of the European competitors have gone offline because of the high natural gas prices in Europe and how this would affect the bottom line of $UAN. Seems like the spread between European and US natural gas prices seems to widen almost every single week.
On input costs: I see you plugged NatGas at 4$ for 2022. What happens if the strip is much much higher, at say $8? I assume it still hurts competitors more than them and somewhat offset by implied higher fertilizer prices?
Second input, pet coke, you say 1/3 has ceiling at 40$. What is the ceiling on the rest 2/3? I am not familiar with what pet coke prices driven by- refining activity?
I have the numbers up in the article (apologies for the small font) so you can do the napkin math and sensitize as you see fit. I think using the futures curve is fine, that’s what the market is pricing in.
There is no ceiling for 2/3 of pet coke sourced from 3rd parties, as far as I’m aware. So I was pretty conservative in my projections. Pet coke is a pretty regional product and there is no liquid futures curve or anything like that so it’s hard to say where they will shake out exactly.
Pet coke is usually a byproduct of the refining process and refiners are happy to get rid of it for whatever they can get. Hence the cheap off take contract with CVI
I think this a great, clear idea and I'm kicking myself for not doing a little more work on my annual look at UAN in January. Oh, well. Apart from input disruptions, the one thing that occurs to me that could derail this playing out exactly as you map out is an unplanned outage. Obviously can't plan for that, but it's just one thing to keep in mind.
If memory serves, the Rentech assets when acquired were a little hinky because of deferred maintenance (I could be wrong on this). I'd imagine that's all in the past, but these plants are still hot and dangerous, with massive operating leverage that cuts both ways. Not really an original or value-add thought by me, but a fire or mechanical failure (they deferred some of the turnaround this year, though I imagine that's fine) is no small thing.
But like I said, great idea; thanks. Gonna have another look and will probably end up buying some myself.
Yes, totally fair point. I’d imagine they have proper biz interruption insurance but an accident or a mechanical issue would certainly cause an overhang. I would say though they did some maintenance work when they were briefly offline during the winter storm earlier this year. Bottom line, I agree this is a risk, but one worth taking for this investment.
Do you know in which states UAN reports income? I can live with a two state K-1 (KS, IL) but if they sell fertilizer in 20 states, I don’t need the tax filing hassle.
Bump - I can't find this in their documents online, the tax support service listed on UAN's website said they did not know the answer, and IR hasn't responded to my inquiries.
I wouldn't bet that IEP sells CRV Energy. IEP get's past the 40 Act by owning CRV in the same way that Berkshire Hathaway gets around the 40 Act by owning GIECO.... BRK isn't selling GEICO ever for that reason and neither would IEP. If IEP were to sell CRV they would need another large operating asset to take its place otherwise be subject to the 40 Act as a closed-end fund trading securities.
Thanks for the comment. I don’t have an immediate reaction, will dig into this topic to make sure I understand it. But yes, ultimately I don’t think a buyout is necessary at all to make a god return from here
Hi, subscriber here. Cn you please send me your xls for your analysis? pker28@live.com
Also, curious to your updated opinion on this stock now that it has rallied significantly. Distributions were lower than expected however, they did retire debt.
I wonder if you have an idea how many of the European competitors have gone offline because of the high natural gas prices in Europe and how this would affect the bottom line of $UAN. Seems like the spread between European and US natural gas prices seems to widen almost every single week.
What are the odds you are willing to provide an update on this ?
You’re welcome to email me if you have something specific to discuss. I won’t be commenting publicly
Do you have some updated thoughts on this? Seems likely they are going to get close to $55 in distributions for 2022 with the higher pricing.
5/22 call options - why did you opt for the May expiry timing?
Where is the source of the $38/unit guaranteed cumulative distributions please?
It’s already explained in the article. That is the source. Forward selling + my conservative assumptions.
Thanks. Saw it in your model now. Was confused if this was some sort of official forecast or your projection. Thanks for clarification
No prob. The company has never given forecasts, to my recollection. Obviously hard business to predict as they don’t control prices
On input costs: I see you plugged NatGas at 4$ for 2022. What happens if the strip is much much higher, at say $8? I assume it still hurts competitors more than them and somewhat offset by implied higher fertilizer prices?
Second input, pet coke, you say 1/3 has ceiling at 40$. What is the ceiling on the rest 2/3? I am not familiar with what pet coke prices driven by- refining activity?
Thank you for the write up.
I have the numbers up in the article (apologies for the small font) so you can do the napkin math and sensitize as you see fit. I think using the futures curve is fine, that’s what the market is pricing in.
There is no ceiling for 2/3 of pet coke sourced from 3rd parties, as far as I’m aware. So I was pretty conservative in my projections. Pet coke is a pretty regional product and there is no liquid futures curve or anything like that so it’s hard to say where they will shake out exactly.
Pet coke is usually a byproduct of the refining process and refiners are happy to get rid of it for whatever they can get. Hence the cheap off take contract with CVI
I think this a great, clear idea and I'm kicking myself for not doing a little more work on my annual look at UAN in January. Oh, well. Apart from input disruptions, the one thing that occurs to me that could derail this playing out exactly as you map out is an unplanned outage. Obviously can't plan for that, but it's just one thing to keep in mind.
If memory serves, the Rentech assets when acquired were a little hinky because of deferred maintenance (I could be wrong on this). I'd imagine that's all in the past, but these plants are still hot and dangerous, with massive operating leverage that cuts both ways. Not really an original or value-add thought by me, but a fire or mechanical failure (they deferred some of the turnaround this year, though I imagine that's fine) is no small thing.
But like I said, great idea; thanks. Gonna have another look and will probably end up buying some myself.
Yes, totally fair point. I’d imagine they have proper biz interruption insurance but an accident or a mechanical issue would certainly cause an overhang. I would say though they did some maintenance work when they were briefly offline during the winter storm earlier this year. Bottom line, I agree this is a risk, but one worth taking for this investment.
Agreed!
what are the tax implications of the distributions?
This is a K-1 producing MLP. You should consult with your tax advisor
Do you know in which states UAN reports income? I can live with a two state K-1 (KS, IL) but if they sell fertilizer in 20 states, I don’t need the tax filing hassle.
Bump - I can't find this in their documents online, the tax support service listed on UAN's website said they did not know the answer, and IR hasn't responded to my inquiries.
The 2021 state schedule has rows for IL, KS, MO, NE, and OK.
how did he get to the $38 in distributions in the next 3 quarters? I don’t see that?
Respectfully, I have a full model build in the writeup… it’s all there.